Tobacco smoking expected to rise in Africa, a study says

By Peter Sesay

According to a study conducted by The Lancet, a weekly—and the oldest—general medical journal viewed as one of the most prestigious medical publications in the world, contrary to the downward trend observed in other parts of the world, Africa and east Mediterranean are expected to experience “rapid increase” in smoking.

The study aims at providing comprehensive estimates of recent trends in tobacco smoking worldwide, and to make projections for future tobacco smoking trends in order to provide estimates of the probabilities of achieving the reduction targets set by the World Health Organization (WHO) and agreed to by countries throughout the world. Using data from the WHO Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control, the study attempted to assess trends between 1990 and 2010 and made projections in the 15 years leading to 2025 for current tobacco smoking, daily tobacco smoking, current cigarette smoking, and daily cigarette smoking. The study covered 173 countries for men and 178 countries for women.

The study found that during the last decade (2000-2010), tobacco smoking by men dropped in 125 countries, which translates to a 72% decrease, and in 156 countries (or 88%) in the case of women. If these trends continue, only 37 countries are on track to achieve their targets for men and 88% for women, leaving the world with an estimated 1.1 billion current tobacco smokers in 2025. The study predicts rapid increases in Africa for men and for both men and women in the eastern Mediterranean, which, the study suggests, calls for “enhanced measures for tobacco control in these regions.”

The study reveals, based on the current trends, that striking disparities in tobacco use would persist among countries in 2025, therefore making it impossible to achieve the set targets. The study also projects a worsening of the “tobacco epidemics” in several low-income and middle-income countries, and concludes: “Immediate, effective, and sustained action is necessary to attain and maintain desirable trajectories for tobacco control and achieve global convergence towards elimination of tobacco use.”