Buhari expected to take Nigeria (and Africa) to a better destination
BY MODUPE ABIOLA
ABUJA, NIGERIA: If President Obasanjo’s swearing-in on May 29, 1999, which signaled the return of democracy to Africa’s most populous (now wealthiest) nation, was hailed as a historical landmark in Nigeria’s modern history, the democratic and peaceful election of Muhammadu Buhari and his subsequent swearing-in today bring enormous hope to Nigeria, the African region as a whole and, without pushing it too hard, the whole world in many ways.
Most serious presidential contenders are confident they will win. Former Nigerian president Goodluck Jonathan who ran under the banner of Nigeria’s main political party, the People’s Democratic Party, which has dominated the political scene since 1999, apparently had no doubt—and indeed repeatedly said—he’d win. While he may have been caught by surprise by his defeat, many observers of Nigeria’s politics expected that outcome.
In a post-election interview on April 5 with The Punch, a leading Nigerian newspaper, the emir of Kano, Lamido Muhammad Sanusi II, blamed Jonathan’s defeat squarely on the level of poverty in the areas that have cast their votes against the incumbent president, as the culmination of a process that took several years in the making. Said the royalty: “I believe more and more of those states began to feel that sense of not feeling the federal presence and not feeling the impact of democracy in their pockets, and I think it is extremely important for people to connect with the government, and when you have such conditions after 16 years of democracy, it was natural that people would want to have a change, and I think this is basically what has happened.”
Nigeria, the leading oil-producing country in Africa, is the largest economy on the continent with a GDP of $521.8 billion according to the 2013 estimates. In 2013, Nigeria received $21.3 billion in foreign direct investment, and $2.5 billion in January and February of last year. Despite the country’s current economic woes which are due, for a large part, to the fallen price of oil and the slowing growth, GDP is still expected to be around 5% this year and next year. However, unemployment is on the rise and is feared to go even higher. Half of the population lives below the poverty line while corruption remains an elusive challenge (as in most African countries). At the same time, the country is $63bn in debt, and is forced to borrow to pay government workers. In most democracies—a status Nigeria is resolutely aspiring to achieve—it is no surprise for the voters to vote their pocketbooks.
In his inaugural speech, President Buhari who campaigned on the general theme of change—now a common theme in presidential campaigns throughout the world, from Abdoulaye Wade’s sopi slogan in Senegal to Obama’s campaign theme of change—vows to tackle this daunting issue by saying: “With depleted foreign reserves, falling oil prices, leakages and debts, the Nigerian economy is in deep trouble and will require careful management to bring it round and to tackle the immediate challenges confronting us…”
The new president is also faced with the devastating security and subsequent economic concerns constituted by the terrorist group Boko Haram which has so far caused between 15,000 and 20,000 deaths, according to varying estimates, and more than three million displaced people. (The Jonathan’s administration shied away from dealing with this insurgency until weeks before the election.) Buhari, who has criticized the out-going president on that ground, showed in his inaugural speech an unmistakable resolve to face that challenge and others:
“At home we face enormous challenges. Insecurity, pervasive corruption, the hitherto unending and seemingly impossible fuel and power shortages are the immediate concerns. We are going to tackle them head on. Nigerians will not regret that they have entrusted national responsibility to us. We must not succumb to hopelessness and defeatism. We can fix our problems.”
Nigeria, with a population estimated at 178,516,904 as of July 1, 2014, and with its economic might, has always been a formidable giant in the entire African region, and a partner that developed nations, including the United States, reckon with.
Despite the apparent desire of both Abuja and Washington to maintain good relations, there have been a few bumps on the road over the past couple of years, starting with the Nigerian people’s and some of their leaders’ sharp criticism of what many of them perceived as President Obama “snubbing” them by his decision not visit Nigeria during his first visit to Africa in 2009, and the second, for that matter, in 2013 citing security concerns. But things got more complicated than that, owing to the United States’ exasperation over the high level of corruption in the Nigerian army and across the Nigerian government, and President Jonathan’s perceived reluctance to deal with it. That is not to mention the Obama administration’s frustration over Jonathan’s nagging reluctance to take on the terrorist group Boko Haram. Abuja, for its part, was reportedly terribly upset over the United States’ reluctance to share some key intelligence.
Nigerians as well as foreign nationals in attendance at the swearing-in ceremony today at Abuja’s Eagle Square noted the large section President Buhari has devoted in his speech to his resolve to crush the Boko Horam insurgency: “The most immediate [challenge] is Boko Haram’s insurgency. Progress has been made in recent weeks by our security forces but victory can not be achieved by basing the Command and Control Centre in Abuja,” the new president said. Then he announced that “The command centre will be relocated to Maiduguri and remain until Boko Haram is completely subdued. But we can not claim to have defeated Boko Haram without rescuing the Chibok girls and all other innocent persons held hostage by insurgents.” Buhari’s statement in an editorial page published by The New York Times on April 14 saying “My administration would welcome the resumption of a military training agreement with the United States, which was halted during the previous (Jonathan) administration,” signaled a shift from the status quo, a step that is viewed as a just the first one in the direction of improved relations between Washington and Abuja.
The festive swearing-in ceremony here today in Abuja’s Eagle Square carried strong symbolism that, in the words of a local political analyst I spoke to, will stick “in our minds for some time,” with the out-going president handing over the constitution and the national flags to his successor; with Buhari shaking hands with Shehu Shagari, the country’s elected president he toppled 32 years ago, and with Ibrahim Babangida, his own colleague who deposed him 20 months later, all this, before Buhari took the oath of office.
In many ways, the significance of today’s swearing-in transcends Nigeria’s borders. The fair and peaceful election of Buhari, an opposition leader who was profusely outspent by an opponent who ran on the platform of the party that has won the country’s past three presidential elections, brings hope to an African region where democracy is still in short supply.
Johnnie Carson, senior advisor at the U.S. Institute of Peace and a fellow at Yale University, formerly Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs during President Obama’s first term, and U.S. Ambassador to Kenya, Uganda and Zimbabwe, urges the Obama administration to seize the opportunity: “Nigeria is so important, and the administration should not miss this opportunity to engage with Nigeria’s new government,” the veteran diplomat says, adding: “Strong support for Nigeria will help strengthen its democracy, support its economic growth and enhance its security and stability. An economically vibrant and democratically robust Nigeria is in the interests of Africa, the U.S. and the broader global community.”
Nigeria, Africa and the rest of the world, as a local political analyst told The African following the inaugural ceremony, hope that President Buhari, the 72-year-old former military dictator turned born-again democrat, “will keep his splendid campaign promises, aided by all, in our demanding world where politicians are increasingly accountable to the voters.”